Wednesday, April 28, 2010

"Tipping Point" paper spreading across the internet

I have been coming across a paper that's been getting re-tweeted a lot and popping up on two important peak oil sites. The paper is called Tipping Point: Near-Term Implications of a Peak in Global Oil Production (click to download the PDF document) and was written by David Korowicz of Feasta and the Risk/Resilience Network and published on feasta.org on March 15, 2010. The paper has particularly popped up on theoildrum.com and energybulletin.com, both of which are sites that really address the peak oil issue.

Anyway, on the paper's source site, there is a summary with bulleted points that outline the mechanisms of collapse; indicators of post-peak oil decline. Among the points I was somewhat alarmed by two points that state the following:

Peak oil is likely to force peak energy in general. The ability to bring on new energy production and maintain existing energy infrastructure is likely to be severely compromised. We may see massive demand and supply collapses with limited ability to re-boot.

I think this generally summarizes how most other energies and our present energy grid, in America for example, is powered by fossil fuels. Without oil everything else stops. Prior to learning about the realities about alternative energies and how close we are to peak oil, if we're not already passed peak, I was under the impression that the present Green Movement was countering fossil fuel energy shortfall. But since I started down this rabbit hole of sorts, I have been feeling distraught to learn that there is no suitable alternative energy source to replace our current edifice upon which the whole world stands.  I've been searching and reading at night after work for sources that might speak of viable fossil fuel alternatives, but all I've come across is talk along the lines of "too little, too late but let's hope for he best" contingency plans for he worst in the wake of oil decline.  I almost can't blame people for the way they feel when it comes to going through the first stage of grief in regards to the peak oil theory:  denial.

And later it reads...

We argue that one of the principle initial drivers of the collapse process will be growing visible action about peak oil. It is expected that investors will attempt to extract themselves from 'virtual assets' such as bond, equities, and cash and convert them into 'real' assets before the system collapses. But the nominal value of virtual assets vastly exceeds the real assets likely to be available. Confirmation of the peak oil idea (by official action), fear, and market decline will drive a positive feedback in financial markets.

In other words the markets are a canary to keep a close eye on. I don't know if it's really guaranteed that the markets will be a definite "sign of the times" so to speak, but I feel we'd be remissed not to give notice.  Also I'm no Wall Street person, nor do I really understand even 1% of the their jargon, but I'm making an educated guess that where the summary says that when markets start trying change over "virtual assets" for "real assets", it must mean that they are going to try to jettison the mass amount of fiat money that is presently being pumped out, for things of physical value.  For example, like when a person gets rid of paper money and seeks after gold.

I'm going to read this 56 page paper and post any attention grabbing highlights that I might come across.

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